Sunday, November 6, 2016

Would a single payer system decrease the quality of healthcare in America?

Very few will read this article, and most not to the end. It's ironic too, because it's not that I have all the answers, but if congress were to do this level of depth with each other the health care debacle would not have happened. They're elected to take the deep dive on important issues, unfortunately it's gamesmanship first and little or no deep dive at all.

"Long Story Short" - I'll give you my opinion on the bottom line in one paragraph, and if you have severe indigestion, or would like to know more of my basis then read starting at "Short Story Long".

Basically, a single payer system will eliminate competition in health care insurance and as a result doctors, hospitals and medical companies will make less. Bad things result from this: Fewer high quality  doctors, lower quality services in hospitals, fewer breakthroughs in drugs and equipment and ultimately higher cost. This is a basic belief of capitalism. If you don't believe that, or if you'd like some details on this then read on!
_____________

"Short Story Long"

So to the question of single payer. I find it helpful to use an analogy that everyone can relate to. So let’s say you live in a town with only two grocery stores. You have to pick one of them to shop, or you’ll be forced to travel maybe 30 minutes longer – which really equates to an hour round trip. The average American is going to be willing to pay slightly more money for groceries locally to avoid the loss of the hour, but if quality or selection is low they will drive the extra hour. Some people lower on the socio economic ladder may trade their time in for the lower grocery prices if it's cheaper out of town, or they might take less quality if they can't afford to travel. The point is that competition will drive each individual to make a choice, and that choice has consequences to each merchant.

Let’s start throwing in more variables. Let’s say both local grocery stores are either unsafe, dirty and/or have really unfriendly staff. That would cause a few more people to make the trip to the out of town stores, right? Maybe not all, but some.  Now let’s say the owner of one grocery store bought the other one and since he knows he’s the only game in town he raises prices. All of sudden there’s a substantial number of people who are fed up. The stores are dirty, not safe, and unfriendly and now the prices are highway robbery – so a lot more people start shopping out of town. Meanwhile, over time either those two stores will continue to degrade but operate, or the owners (or new owners) will wise-up and make the changes they need to make, OR some other new grocery store will open to fill the gap in quality, safety and friendliness. That, my friends, is capitalism at its finest!

But what if capitalism were not allowed to correct the problem because congress is lobbied and intervenes? What if congress decided the only way to force the stores to be cleaner, sell quality food and force workers to be friendly were to pass a law setting all the prices for all the grocery stores in the country? Congress surmises that if everyone pays the same for the groceries the quality will even out and all Americans will receive relatively the same level of service.

Well of course setting prices wouldn't force the store to be cleaner, safer and friendlier, right? Quality would surely average down because there is less differentiation between product, price and service. By and large, the ability of a store to charge a higher price enables them to spend money on service and quality, and that will draw more people in the store - at least the people who value service over price.

At this point people are angry! They were willing to travel because they don’t want to shop in a dirty, unsafe store with unfriendly workers. The problem is, the out of town grocery stores are now making less money, so they spend less on quality, cleanliness and safety. In the past, competition drove the average overall quality up, yet there were people on the lower end that received less - and that was the basis for demanding government intervention. The problem with that is that the intervention caused lower quality for all, on average - is that a good trade?

Now to tie health care back in. The Doctors are the stores in this case – and the customers are the same. If some people don’t like the quality of their local docs they’ll drive the extra mile, right? The two local docs are charging higher prices because there are no other docs in town and many people won’t drive the extra miles. The docs are setting their prices on choice, and supply and demand, just like the grocery stores.

Once again the government passes a law to make it fairer and creates an insurance system that forces the docs to accept lower compensation of services. The docs decide they’ll accept the government rate but they’ll need to raise the prices of their other patients. Pretty soon everyone buys insurance, but the private/non-government insurers pay the docs more, because if they didn’t then everyone would use the government insurance, right? At this stage if a person can afford the private insurance they choose that, because they’ve noticed there are fewer docs every day taking the government insurance – or docs put a hard-limit on the number of patients who use government insurance. That way all their other patients who are privately insured will make up for the loss. This is the system we have now.

One day though, the government passes a law requiring everyone to have insurance – and all the private insurers offer government subsidized policies. After three years they find that this is very expensive, on average, compared to before the law (this is an undisputed fact), and as a result they raise premiums on everyone. At this critical juncture one of three things happen –
  1. Either the government eliminates all insurers in health care except for themselves, causing the following:
    • Pay rates to docs to drastically reduce (think of only Docs receiving only Medicare) – resulting in many, possible most quality students to choose careers other than medicine.
    • R&D budgets of medical equipment companies vanish because of no profit to fund it – thereby slashing medical breakthroughs in all pursuits.
    • Massive wait time for limited specialist (this is Canada).
    • R&D budgets of drug companies vanish, causing advances to all but disappear, just like medical equipment.
  2. Or eventually the private insurer prices are so high people are forced to not buy it (take the penalty and buy only what they need) – this results in a much lower pool of people to make up the difference effectively killing both the government and private insurance benefits for all. This would either cause the government to mandate higher taxes to fund their underfunded healthcare obligation or they would literally not be able to pay the docs and hospitals. Of course the government could borrow from social security again, but that would take congressional action and that’s not likely in this contemptuous issue, is it?
  3. Or, the government decides to repeal the mandates and let competition return.
    • They might tax the 300 million Americans to pay for health care for the 30 million that can’t afford it (solving the original problem in the first place). Notice I said health care, not insurance. They get a card, they go to a Doc and they receive quality service. They can only get the card by proving they are in need (just like the system today). Of course we already know the cost of providing health care to 30 million people is far less than the cost of all the skyrocketing premiums. So this is the obvious compromise.
    • Competition in health insurance without minimum mandates return, quality goes up and prices lower. Remember that people left the system at some critical price point, so the premiums would have to lower to entice them back – or they just stay out.

In summary, competition is almost always the better answer. Government should only run things when competition can’t safely serve and protect the consumer.

I’m interested in your comments – I realize this is just my opinion and others may feel different. If your opinion differs I’d like to know specifically how it differs, especially in cause and effect. Please though, don’t provide an example of a small number of people would do this, or that, because remember we’re talking about 300 million plus people here – keep your scenarios realistic and we can figure it all out.

As a citizen, I blame the Democrats for forcing such a bad bill. As a conservative I actually applaud them for trying to improve healthcare for all – but they get a big F in execution. You actually hear some people say they blame the republicans for not fixing (the bill). That’s not realistic – you don’t play trickery with a bill and force your position and then expect the other side to gleefully help you fix your bad bill. No, in this case that bill should never have passed. Did the Democratic Party see the result happening in the future? I seriously doubt it – I don’t think it was a single payer system conspiracy. Remember, they didn’t even read the bill before they passed it. No, it was all team politics. PS – I also blame the Republicans for not reaching across the aisle for healthcare reform before that bad bill showed up. They all need to go, ALL of them. Term limits will fix this and many other problems. With term limits they’re more likely to do the right thing, more likely to be statesmen and not re-elected by special interest dollars. That’s another subject though…


Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Be inside, kicking out...

Looking back through the years,


I remember quite distinctly spotting some developing trends that caused me to “re-tool” and shift where the market was pointing. Some, just in time. For instance, telecommunications was not the most secure place to be after the late 80's, so I retooled into Data Communications. I also distinctly remember when those PC and Novell outlanders came out of nuisance status and started replacing big iron mainframes. 

Then we spotted the “internet” at the Super Collider and created my ISP as a full service ISDN offering (it “was” high speed). I'm not suggesting I'm brilliant, as a matter of fact probably most of us in these fields could see these things coming, you just had to be really stubborn to ignore them. If you did ignore them, well...

Now we have another train that’s long left the station, “cloud”. Actually my ISP company started selling thin-client (early days SaaS) service via internet in the late 90’s. We may have been a bit early in the market, but the train is now freight train status, largely due to big bandwidths enabling web clients access to native applications without the trouble of thin client..

I wouldn't look at cloud as a career though, not in and of itself. I'd look at is as an enabler of whatever you feel your secret sauce is. In my case I love business process improvement. Helping organizations streamline time to market and slash processes that don't fit. The modern interpretation to this is "reducing technical debt". Well, business process improvement is not new, but the optimal solution set is much easier than it used to be with XaaS (my new word, X being just about any service as a lease).

Still, apparently the word is not completely out with cloud. Recently I saw an article with a title that included “cloud is here to stay”.  I had to double-check the date to be sure it wasn’t 5 years earlier, but nope. Some are still viewing cloud as one viable option. On the contrary, it’s difficult to see any company not using SaaS or PaaS for most applications within 5 years. The ROI is too strong. Not only in cash flow but also the impact on CapEx and limberness (elasticity is the current word).

So being in the industry we have to continue to re-tool, learn all we can, test the boundaries, take risks, and… something different… actually learn how to think like the CFO, or even the CEO. Technology decisions should principally revolve around opportunity, elasticity, and cash-flow. No, I didn’t mention governance and security because we’ve probably already passed the point where it’s now easier to secure using XaaS. All this to say, make the future your best friend and conquer your own horizon.

To close on a fun note, and speaking of prophesying, I bet you’ve already thought the following question will oft be asked in 10 years’ time: “Can you believe they actually let people steer these cars back then?”   Or even… “Daddy/Mommy why are there so many empty lanes on the highway”?   “Well dear, people used to drive to work…” Let's take it further then. If that does comes to pass, what do you think we'll do with all those extra roads and highways? Could be fun.

 (Patrick Bouldin is the President & CEO of Run This Project, specializing in cloud computing strategy and Business Process Improvement.)





Thursday, March 17, 2016

The inevitable CEO – CIO Conversation?

The past conversations have been tense enough: 

CEO  : Jack, what are we doing about the cloud? 
CIO  : Al, it’s ok, the cloud is insecure, no governance and we’d be at the mercy of someone else... but don’t worry, we moved our email and our on-boarding app to it and sort of checking it all out…

Tomorrow's conversation: 

CEO : Jack, I know our company has been a profit mecca for 25 years, but the guys at the CEO lunch told me we have to have a “cloud migration strategy" or we’ll get undercut by competitors that don’t even exist right now. Plus, I'm told our valued I.T. staff can get certified in these services. I hear there's even an art to juggling different cloud providers and optimizing the service costs.

Ok, both conversations are accurate based on the time they occur. Times have changed, and the train has long left the station. Cloud providers actually offer the governance specs you’re looking for, for the most part. And yes, guys and gals are spinning up companies like spinning up cotton candy because it’s so cheap to do now. Your company’s “secret sauce” is what made it successful for the last two decades, but nowadays it’s no longer secret. Your market share can be assured by providing top quality, but all things being equal you’ll have to produce your product at a cost on par with new competitors. Besides, you’ve been frustrated at time to market, and I.T. technical debt has been limiting company growth for years.

The answer is to migrate the expenses that you can to the cloud, where it makes sense. But what “makes sense”? Those factors should drive your cloud migration strategy. If your company has custom code that runs on an old OS that’s not offered in the cloud then your plan has to also include migrating the OS. Worried? You shouldn’t be, you knew you’d have to do it anyway.


Check out this table, I know it’s busy, just cast your eyes on the three arrows.




The graphic is showing you the ideal situation – conventional data center expenses rolling off over time and cloud expenses going up. Yet, the THIRD red arrow is the most important, the total is less than ever, and the Sparkline trend shows dramatic downward trending! Is it overstated? Not if you plan it out well.

Guess THE most important factor? Is it the execution and migration? Nope. Is it the limberness and scalability improvement? Nope. THE most important factor of success in cloud migration is proving to the CEO (via the CFO) that your net expense trend is going down! But, your plan must have a well-organized process to retire services – and while tempting, it simply can’t be somebody’s part time side job.

That’s a risky proposition – but success can be assured if, and only if, your migration plan has someone ensuring that you’re killing off leases, reducing power and cooling consumption, consolidating data storage and redeploying assets to other areas.

The migration plan itself is yet another subject and involves a deep dive on each application. Not all apps are created equal, have the same risk or have the same importance or the same priority. So, the plan will be multi-faceted. Apps that can’t move today, apps that must move soon and apps that might make more sense staying in-house. Approach this with the old 80/20 rule and you’re the hero in the next annual report.

(Patrick Bouldin is the President & CEO of Run This Project, specializing in cloud computing strategy and Business Process Improvement.)

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Businesses Must Care About Cloud


Businesses Must Care About Cloud


Elasticity is THE key advantage in using cloud services. Traditionally with Information Technology spending, actual demand is either less, or greater than capacity. If I.T. has built out capacity too far ahead of demand, it may result in good service, but the cost is not so pleasing to those concerned with earnings.  Conversely, if I.T. is short on capacity nobody in the company is happy. To understand the true gravity of the opportunity or threat that cloud has on legacy business, let’s start with this:


“Constraints, in general, are likely the single biggest factor why a profitable legacy company can fail in this millennium.”



Of course one could make the argument that this has always been the case. The difference is that because of the tools available to entrepreneurs now, you have very little time to respond to competitive attacks. The legacy companies usually were birthed because of some secret sauce. After they became huge and established the sauce wasn’t secret anymore. However, competition was easily held at bay due to the bigger company’s ability to survive a price war or some other predatory tactic.


There have been books and books written on this subject. My favorite is Judo Strategy: Turning Your Competitors' Strength to Your Advantage, by David B. Yoffie. This book was written well before the term “cloud” was coined. While the practice of Judo is ancient, the fundamental point will never change – and the point is in the title itself. Suffice it to say that if an entrepreneur can figure out a way to deliver some small component of a product to a customer cheaper, better and faster, then he may be able to drive a splinter in that market and thrive. Why? Because the big company’s processes are too fat, too slow and too invested to react quickly enough to head off Mr. Small Potatoes. See the Judo reference?

Cloud is a tool that entrepreneurs will use to strike it rich from here on out, and this will continue to erode legacy market share. However if you’re a legacy company take heart, everyone can play and win at this game.


Watch out though, because cloud is just a tool and you could easily buy the wrong brand, spend too much, fail to measure, implement it incorrectly or fail to establish a timeline. With so much to lose or so much to gain, I can’t think of a single legacy business in this country that shouldn’t be evaluating cloud services in some way and at this very moment.


(Patrick Bouldin is the President & CEO of RunThis Project, specializing in Cloud computing and Business Process Improvement.)

Tuesday, March 1, 2016



Why Businesses Must Care About Cloud!


Elasticity is THE key advantage in using cloud services. Traditionally with Information Technology spending, actual demand is either less, or greater than capacity. If I.T. has built out capacity too far ahead of demand, it may result in good service, but the cost is not so pleasing to those concerned with earnings.  Conversely, if I.T. is short on capacity nobody in the company is happy. To understand the true gravity of the opportunity or threat that cloud has on legacy business, let’s start with this:


“Constraints, in general, are likely the single biggest factor why a profitable legacy company can fail in this millennium.”



Of course one could make the argument that this has always been the case. The difference is that because of the tools available to entrepreneurs now, you have very little time to respond to competitive attacks. The legacy companies usually were birthed because of some secret sauce. After they became huge and established the sauce wasn’t secret anymore. However, competition was easily held at bay due to the bigger company’s ability to survive a price war or some other predatory tactic.


There have been books and books written on this subject. My favorite is Judo Strategy: Turning Your Competitors' Strength to Your Advantage, by David B. Yoffie. This book was written well before the term “cloud” was coined. While the practice of Judo is ancient, the fundamental point will never change – and the point is in the title itself. Suffice it to say that if an entrepreneur can figure out a way to deliver some small component of a product to a customer cheaper, better and faster, then he may be able to drive a splinter in that market and thrive. Why? Because the big company’s processes are too fat, too slow and too invested to react quickly enough to head off Mr. Small Potatoes. See the Judo reference?

Cloud is a tool that entrepreneurs will use to strike it rich from here on out, and this will continue to erode legacy market share. However if you’re a legacy company take heart, everyone can play and win at this game.


Watch out though, because cloud is just a tool and you could easily buy the wrong brand, spend too much, fail to measure, implement it incorrectly or fail to establish a timeline. With so much to lose or so much to gain, I can’t think of a single legacy business in this country that shouldn’t be evaluating cloud services in some way and at this very moment.


(Patrick Bouldin is the President & CEO of RunThis Project, specializing in cloud computing strategy and Business Process Improvement.)

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Choose the advice wisely...



We All Love Our Heroes


I was straightening up my office after having let it get messy for the last couple of years when I came across an unopened DVD. It was by a well known person who makes money in providing sound financial advice, yet it was dated 2011. I had come across it before so I thought that since I'd be spending a few hours on this task why not pop in the DVD?

Just to save time and space I’ll make this person a she, and call her Janey. Janey makes a living at teaching sound day to day financial advice – and I’ve always respected her – I really have. In fact I still do. The truth is 90% of her advice is sound in any decade: Save, minimize debt, live below your means, etc.

What she missed though was steering people clear of real estate in the (then) current real estate market. She said that so many houses were in foreclosure and that it doesn’t make sense to necessarily buy that first house. “You have far more supply than you do demand”…. Continuing “so, real estate isn’t going anywhere very quickly, at all…”  “Most likely, real estate is going to stay exactly where it is right now, and in some areas through-out the United States it’s actually going to continue to decrease, not increase”. Well, that was wrong – at least in the Dallas – Fort Worth area. Her further advice – if you want to own a home now is as good a time as ever (if you want a house for 5-10 years or more). If you can get a steal of a deal, go for it. – and take it if you have 20% to put down and a 8 month emergency fund.” To be fair, she seemed ok with getting a good deal on a house if you were planning on being there a lot of years. The problem was, the market turned up quickly in many cities and there was an opportunity to pick up good investment property.

Despite her excellent day to day financial advice the fact is that so many people she was describing couldn’t qualify for a loan, but still needed a place to live. So rental property investment should have been one of her leading investment options. You can't break down current financial climate in the same way you break down common financial sense (save, keep debt low, etc).  Being an expert in one area actually doesn't make you an expert in the other.

"Janey" mentioned how a FICO score could affect your ability to rent, that landlords will deny you with a FICO too low. Really?  Not so fast. Is she a landlord? Who is renting? Landlords of residential property don’t put much stock in FICO scores. Why? Because a low FICO score explains why they need your house. It’s not normally people who have the ability to purchase, it is people who can’t qualify to purchase – at least in the last 5 or so years. Smart landlords look at low FICO applicants as opportunity. They look for a track record - a low FICO could be a result of one bad mortgage - yet they earnestly pay everything they possibly can. These people can potentially take the best care of your property and offer several years of hassle free investment income.

Looking back, what was the best move? It depends on where you live and your financial situation. People make their money on doing the opposite of the herd, not the mood of the general consensus. Running for the hills means you will be stuck with everyone else.

...and they can do no wrong...

"Janey's" day to day financial advice is sound: Save, invest, spend without credit, budget, plan for retirement, healthcare planning, estate planning, etc. But, forecasting a specific market in the future is murky and dangerous, and if you followed her investment advice in 2011, more than likely it wasn’t the best investment decision.

I think, for me, the lesson here is stick to what you know. If you invest in real estate you should stick with it. It may mean you have times where you buy and times when you sell – but hard times should never dictate that you stop the business, only that you re-assess how you’re going to conduct it. 

This is a reminder (to me and you) that when taking advice, take it thankfully and graciously, but also cautiously. At the end of the day you and you alone benefit or suffer from what you do. Advice is cheap, regardless of who is selling it. By cheap I mean it's a lot cheaper than negative outcomes in most cases. "Make and Be" your positive outcome. Find successful people in areas of your interest and sign them up as your mentors - that's the best source of advice.